" just with " phenomenon
2007.09.27 17: 51Source:Author:Recently in several week, ChineseMetalAnd energy market synchronismMakePerson gains have friend fully, is on seminarFuturesMarket is " Ge zero withStock, bull market comes all make money , share god. All nearly think that option market will always have home that loses when, actually, merchandise big bull market also has the phenomenon such as " just with ". Have person think the nominal of strong tendency snipe can pay out greater cost, the author thinks that under certain condition, eventually, home that loses may not be the terminal consumer besides option market in option market.
Option market has very important function , is " price discovery". Basis passes hold a plate of experience, this time, bull market will be theme with " change interval , change location " as all previous big bull market in former history. Original location 3 or 4 pieces of Chicago per Pu Shi ErWheat, change 9 pieces of 10 pieces of each Pu Shi Er, the Chicago soybean of 6 or 7 pieces of original each Pu Shi Er, change 10 pieces of, 12 pieces of each Pu Shi Er or certain interval, 1 or 2 years agoCopperMarket isRMBEach ton of value interval
The knowledge of this kind of sense of overall situation advances gradually. In the initial and former half stage of bull market, only partial market participators can have the imagination of this kind of new price, as well as the system that tendency follows trade person meeting firmly in when strong tendency increases hold is bull, keep pace with the times. The cover with the business on-hand stock as representative protects strength to be easy comparatively to play the role of phony role. They have represented the conservative force of option market , are the steady and conducted duty of old price interval that sold , in order to market maintains the original price interval of original market order and return. For instance assuming each ton of originals of 2000 Yuan such as wheat purchase cost, when price rising arrives at 2200 o'clock, do you do not do production, its stock may have 10% of profits , why not sell lock profit? The behavior of this kind of lock profit has formed one, is from the function of " know canal " in the extrovert option market of option market , for goods market transportation fund, transport fresh blood. This scene as if Dr. Alexander when its works " with trade to make a living "( Taiwan translates in for " operate career is not dream ") write road, this kind of supply as if ancient Roman is build pyramid, need to transport new slave constantly , have realized the supply of new fund for the project of this grandness. That is said, eventually, is the consumer besides option market is buying sheet for bull market. With "first in first out" accountant criterion comes accounting, its finished cost is low, gross profit is moist to promote; Come with the accounting criterion of " after enter happen first " accounting, its finished cost is increased , gross profit is moist and meager or negative number, but the appreciation in stock held is huge.
The nominal on-hand stock if when appropriate covers protect scope do leave empty , is when cover takes definite interests. The development of bull market advances gradually, divide stage. In " hold a plate of Chicago ", the author has described the psychology reason of this kind of phenomenon in detail. Person is a kind of high-grade animal, this kind of biology instinct has decided that adult complies with the trend of intrinsic habit, incline in familiar thing , refuse new thing. For example, young person likes to hear new song more , wears new clothing, the adult of the more big age likes the brand of the merchandise that uses to know the more , likes to sing old song, the old friend that likes and knows exchanges. In new environment, strange occasion meeting or the office of others they feel tense. Sometimes, a clothing that had cherished already do not wear for quite a long time, is still willing to put it in wardrobe not house throw , still fantasize that perhaps, which day can still wear once. In market behavior, this kind of habit has caused the love for" old price interval" is hard to give up. The copper market bull market of last year, price goes initial stage of 400 cent each lb of developments from the interval of 200 each lb of cents, with country, storing up the business on-hand stock with department of representative who holds stock have shown this kind of strong love trend. They initial sell in order to protect value is original intention, afterwards behavior oversteps the bounds , have surpassed money limit, hold storehouse by international fund , have caused a big risk incident. This time, it is the quotations of bull market of representative with agricultural product , is still the Hollywood result of " full-court wins all " if still occuring in the money limit that cover protects. Bull gain to do not need to say, nominal when the loss of option market gets more profit compensation by the appreciation of the corresponding stock on-hand stock, also belong to winner.
For superintendency layer surface, this kind of scene of " full-court wins all " is just one, is for the risk educational opportunity of social the masses and management level. The more ordinary investor pays attention to the development of option market and merchandise market early , can reduce the loss in big inflation the more.
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