You may see , American bank system is also to miss opportunity extremely in 1972 since one moves towards another extremely , can be not come down steadily under close balanced route, the decline of American bank system , upraise and the prosperity and decline of Soviet Union are similar.
This @ point is very interesting,
It is very interesting, however, doing not want quilt in which similar place rushes , faint to head , is nearly impossible to find the isolated program, Soviet system and American bank system of prosperity and decline in realistic world to have ample meaning and isolated degree , is sufficient to display the property of a complete program of prosperity and decline , in which have similar place. Two are very interesting theoretical samples, is not only because they show the process of prosperity and decline from close balanced trend development is not balanced , also show this kind of process may also include static quiet is not balanced , is under the state of not balanced static quiet , acceleration issue will become to become rigid degree deepens gradually. But in realistic world, do not look to to see that many complete programs of prosperity and decline and this kind of programs are few between, two also ask to separate very for a long time, system not is low-down in isolated state to use , each system has affiliated system , and it is also the system of difference and the part of realistic large scale system, disturb each other mutually with affiliated system.
Scientific circle has a kind of new development recently, it is some that name has , is called compound scientific, evolution systematic theory , or foolish Tun theory. Will know historical process, this kind of method far is more useful than the method of traditional analysis type. What is unfortunate is that the method that we see matter is from the science of analysis type mould become , and it is not seemingly to have the degree of benefit for us that influence arrives. Economy wants to become the science of analysis type, however all historical process, include financial market in, it is complex , can not know according to the science of analysis type that we need a brand-new method, my reflection theoretical is preliminary try, we should not over pay attention to the pattern of prosperity and decline, its purpose denotes to draw direction only , should be not a kind of model , incorporates actual condition into this pattern. In identical time, many different processes are going on , some are dynamic, some are static quiets, it is close balance to still have somewhat between, they move mutual, can produce is another and some to belong to the process of identical classification.
. @ this becomes very abstract
I am happy to give an example , but first, I want to say the main points of a generality, when economist discusses not balanced state, talks about the influence of impact and external world, I point out that the different program of prosperity and decline of isolated degree exists , it is to introduce by external world that hoping to show not balanced state is not seemingly , is cause the not complete understanding with inborn participator; Change sentence words to say that financial market is inborn and unstable , it is popular and theoretical- - -Balance will be only just current
European mechanism of exchange rate falls into development suddenly from close balance, is not balanced , market participator in accept to know have defect, they think that currency will be unified , the fluctuation of exchange rate will be reduced , compete therefore appearance purchase disadvantageous currency high profit bond, so mechanism becomes rigid more, needs radical not because advance gradually change. But at that time as a result, foundation not determines in action that we follow host German federal bank merely.
Financial market inborn instability,Article
Basis myHaving the mechanism of exchange rate have defect
It87Annual foam: High savings ratio, strong currency, very low inflation rate and interest rate, this benefit has limited supply than very high stock market and land , is caused to publish stock and the foam of real estate in large quantities with high price , promotes save, increase has room and has no room the contradiction between person is then political overturn, system is reformed , foam breaks , but87After year, government thinks90In year, phony market comes94Year we in
Having no definite view, had better to look on unconcerned , because develop the complete program of prosperity and decline seldom, and the time of interval is very long, the usual anomaly of market volatility accepts a kind of proposition first , then again lays aside. We try to grasp fluctuation , but do not lay aside , if grabing. Perplexed the best what also not do, because lack faith and lasting strength.
199- - year, the Japanese financial
After flourishing , it can
Foreign program is usual,
1994It does not be demoted that at the beginning82Annual crisis creditor's rights in bank hand, government may adjusting control), crisis does not lie in devaluation , and lies in that bank can not withdraw principal and interest , at the same time also has no final loan person. The program of prosperity and decline is few and isolated to occur. Mexican crisis is the necessary factor that finishes the mad tide of emerging market. Every organization pursuit self interests instead of common interests, financial market is inborn and unstable , unless government intervention. Excessive fluctuation will be dangerous and finance market survival.
( how you limit
銆€銆€"I will not go to limit , wave general instruction I should not limit the definition of idea, should go to explain. In my philosophy, open social foundation is to recognize that we are not complete to understand action , have no a person to possess highest truth , therefore we need the thought pattern of a kind of criticism, we need system, needs take off the interests of common life in peaceful state, we need democratic government form , ensure that regime has the transfer of order, it can offer the market economy that passes on and permits to correct wrongly if we need , we need to protect few , respect few opinion, what is most important is that we need rule by law. Fascist doctrine or special system the ideology of doctrine tributary, facilitate to enclose society springs up , in this kind of society, individual must obey collective, society dominates by country, country serves for dogma, dogma claims have shown highest truth specifically, in this kind of society, have no freedom."
銆€銆€"I may also lift to compare the view of personification: Open society is picture the place that this kind of my person may live and develops. I am Jew of Hungarian birth, early years quilt Nazi pursuit error, then, having again first tried in Hungary make the dominance of doctrine specially, so, I am not to shoot at random17At the time of year, I migrate , is British,"(P86)
Open society is to become the system organized
It is that what Soviet Union disintegrate give open society a lesson , should not be absolutely regard as of course matter, enclose the collapse of society will not facilitate the birth of open society voluntarily, freedom is not only have not suppressed , open society is not only the intervention that has no government. Open society is very complex structure , is taking law and system as foundation , needs some thought way and code of conduct. This kind of structure is very complex, so very ugly to see. Enclose the collapse of society makes authority intervene decreasing, also make us overlook to open society denies with the structure that keeps.
Genuine danger lies
I agree with the system that competes and encourages to compete , but I do not believe that market is perfect. Market the excessive state that trend can not maintain is big as the possibility of moving towards balanced state. Do not believe that competition can facilitate the resource allocation of the best, basic values is more strong than survival of the fittest.
"I want to use a word clear outline:'I Si Gu'For the meaning of flute Ka-Er, it is the same. In fact, the meaning of my sentence words is more important, the maxim of flute Ka-Er the person who mentions thought only, my sentence words also and we this one of life world relevant. Mingle in our decision is wrong to see and misunderstand , have formed the incident that we participate in. The wrong role played the role of in human general affairs, as if sudden change biology."
"This idea is important for me, when I can not still simplify"(P155)
Should say that investment analysis is the knowledge of a forecast. No matter with basic surface or with technical surface, it is tool , does not change the body nature of forecast in fact. The building of basic point of this forecast when the very fact the analysis of combining to pass for fact comes to shine upon future change. In the system of forecast, basic surface or technical surface is tools only. In fact, investor reaches conclusion through basic surface or technical surface and is not reliable, complete, credible, it is even false, unilateral, absurd. This is understood very well, though investor single individual thinks that self is rational, but they are the result that a group have not shown reason.
For this, rope Mr Luo"I suppose that except few exception and our heart wisdom, conception actually has defect or may have defect( is when having no defect because have objective measure standard). These conceptions may contain some factors of truth, but this kind of factor is possible to exaggerate the degree of twisted fact truth"; We deal with the one of method of not complete understanding , are any knowledge of geting us , experience and view continue to use the field that these things can't cover , as if continue to use vision blind spot goes up."We are doomed for the understanding of located world,". It meaning is , is observation person for the analysis of studying for elephant more rely on observation the very person individual, observe person individual accept the ability of knowing have discrepancy , is not complete, imperfect; Secondly, observe person to deny with the fact of research what incline in variation is that it is dynamic, not balanced, it is not linear , but is nonlinear between cause and effect. Such since, participate in investing in the policymaker in process, he and not rely on fact completely to do decide , and it is to make decision based on the explanation for fact , and explains that there is always gap. So, rope Mr Luo Si professes: I believe that self can commit mistake.
Accepting is known and
Therefore the world around us is not complete,
"Person can not". So, is occupation investor, its thought logic whether decide instead of affirm. We may see those characters the investment artistic great master known well, their thought logic has no one not whether decide , is dialectical , can be certificate is fake.
The system in fluctuation analysis in,- -Fluctuation and the negative negation of few for intrinsic tendency for majority for balance negation , reason for God and the negation of mood control for the negation of private investor, it is even for the negation of self state.
In this respect, the ideological system of rope Mr Luo Si is worth for professional investor to study very much. " it is theoretical to reflect " suit very the theoretical system of form. But the key of guaranteeing to demand the success of Mr Luo Si is to recognize that wrong, this mistake is not only the wrong mistake of others that also includes self. Only recognize own mistake, talent when form mistake is from time to time correct to avoid means.
If study somewhat, there is the incident- -Pursuit is perfect
Interpersonal
On the contrary, is theoretical and measure
It is true, false , reflects ( uncertainty) this 3 kinds of form should coexist , instead of have only is true and false. There is still reflection arrangement besides control and free market. This applies to society, because our thought is also contained in society. Negative this can form is twisted and misleading.
My theory the process of can not explain and foreseeWhat is really important is that underI can not for*ForecastCan only formThen, may take actualThis kind of assumption has no correctness on science , but has considerable practicality , may be decision-making and basic in reality. I can not foresee the process of incident according to generally correct general rule , but may devise a kind of configuration , help me to foresee and adjust my expectation according to experience , help me to deal with uncertain situation with not scientific method.
It has the situation of the participator
I study values, but economy
銆€銆€"See that static quiet is not balanced and the boundary line of close balance, I will say that in the state of close balance, all understand the discrepancy of ideological and actual situation , and recognize that two are not throughout consistent, all are willing to study from experience , develop own strength , realize own expectation, this kind of try hard make their thought not as break away from reality excessively. By comparison, in static quiet is not balanced , all can not distinguish the difference of subjective situation and objective situation , are to accept dogma otherwise , regard dogma as last truth, we may have all things on earth of original nation, is clever to discuss , or the communism dogma of Soviet Union is the evidence of example."
銆€銆€"We talk about that when limiting the limit of not balanced development, I am meeting some difficulties correctly on the opinion managed to settle self , the difference of ideological and actual situation becomes very fuzzy , but is this time because actual situation becomes too unstable, no longer in picture close balanced state is the same and universal to get respect, actual state at the same time becomes to compare , have threat, and more changeful, this kind of case will not be individual to occur , the value system of participator is also disintegrated , has a kind of common self reinforcement between the process of incident and the values of guidance all to move mutual, now, we arrive the place that we know , we are now discussing the process of prosperity and decline."
銆€銆€"Problem is , there is what difference after all between the out of control process of prosperity and decline and the process of prosperity and decline of giving up halfway? This problem is answered relatively easily in financial market , is hard to be replied relatively in the form of complete abstractness. If you recall some examples that I have used , you can discover under the condition in out of control all process, popular values has defect , common defect is that all consider as the thing of basic values , result is reflection play Yi. In group enterprise upsurge, it is so, all believe that each surplus is to be unconcerned thing with stock market value; When world borrows upsurge in is also so, banker thinks , their ability of borrowing used for judgment debtor nation liability ratio with the very bank borrow to move about to be unconcerned, besides, there are still many examples. However have the source of a kind of instability additionally I have not mentioned yet, all run under the condition of lack values, all recognize that market has reflection , and recognizes that when tendency is your friend, market will become unstable in fact, this is the case seen by the market of foreign exchange. As if I mention in" financial alchemy", following the speculation of tendency make the freely floating system of exchange rate become unstable, this kind of instability has accumulated strength, time becomes the more unstable the more for a long time."(P166)
To keep ,All must agree some basic valueses, otherwise market can be very unstable. The most of players are organization, they do not care about basic value , care about relative score only, therefore the everybody competition of each other can so encourage to follow the behavior of tendency. It is the state of a kind of instability that close balance is doomed , because basic values has reflection nature.
Absolute score is better
Recognize that ourselves can commit mistake
Freedom lets
Open society is equal to close balanced state, enclose society is equal to static not balanced state. This kind of law of two point is inborn and not complete based on understanding to be able to improve continuously. Abandonment pursuit is perfect , has opened progressive road , so, may create prosperity. Must know the contradiction between thought and reality , just select open society.
Open society has no common values, unless is the very open society. Enclose the person of society to support this idea , but western open social person pursues self interests and does not care about the ideal of open society.
Person usual arrive since self casts is all, the most person
Abstract principle has very
3,About the Open Society
銆€銆€
銆€銆€" .Open social foundation is to recognize that ourselves can commit mistake, enclose society whether decide. In fact, is wrong if we can commit , open society prevail against enclose society, because when in enclose society, the no freedom and problem of thought and choice are , have only personal experience society suppress or as enclose the person of social strong disgust, can just possess this kind of viewpoint , give birth to enjoy the person of open social benefit , will not naturally hold hold this kind of view."(P168)
銆€銆€"The foundation of open society recognizes us understanding inborn have defect , this point sounds as being not good special quality, however not Fang see conversely, not perfect thing may improve , if accept to accompany us commit mistake come to uncertainty, have opened the broad space of continued improvement."
銆€銆€"Science is the best example , is the most honorable crystallization of human wisdom scientifically, scientific firm foundation is commit wrong faith , if science is theoretical to contain last truth, retest science will stop without the progress of meaning and science. Science is a special example, because it has reliable standard may with a view to use , that is said, have no time really may with a view to use."
銆€銆€" .But there are a fatal defect in open society, the person that lives in open society, it is ideal as struggling to do not regard as the idea of open society to be worth for , why? It is very simple: Open society offers the freedom of choice. The no freedom of choice deserves to struggle , but can't become the goal of struggle if having the freedom of choice- -Now need to be still selected. You are impossible merely democratic personage, you must select under social democratic, freely democratic, Christ democracy or any other forms, this is that democracy, always between personage, is the reason that dispute is no less than , and it may maintain discipline and solidarity if supporting enclose the person of society."(P172-173)
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